Unnatural Disasters
Natural disasters and their subsequent humanitarian relief efforts tend, by their very nature, to be transient events. Floods, forest fires and hurricanes hit the headlines for a few days or weeks, then fade from our consciousness. But as governments and experts gather in Geneva this week for the Global Platform for Disaster Relief Reduction, there is one clear priority which rises above all others – the urgent need to tackle climate change – the driver behind many natural disasters. As the clock ticks inexorably towards the Copenhagen climate negotiations in December, time is running out for a deal to keep climate change from spiralling out of control. The heat is on – literally – to reach an agreement which will both stabilise global warming and move us on to a sustainable world economy.
It’s easy to forget that behind the statistics, graphs and minutiae of carbon emissions lie human tragedies on a vast scale. A recent report from the Global Humanitarian Forum estimates that around 300,000 people a year are already dying from causes directly linked to climate change. That’s the equivalent of an Indian Ocean tsunami every single year. That figure will rise to half a million a year by 2030 – almost all of them in developing countries. The increasing frequency of so-called natural disasters – caused or exacerbated by global warming – are a direct threat to the lives, homes, jobs and security of hundreds of millions of people. Famine, water shortages, drought, floods, bush fires, hurricanes – the human misery caused by this apocalyptic litany of disaster is depressingly familiar.
The financial costs of climate change are staggering. Currently running at around US$125 billion a year, they are expected to rise to around US$ 340 billion a year over the next two decades. But it is the human, not the economic, cost of climate change which should spur the world’s leaders on to agree a global deal in Copenhagen. Natural disasters and extreme weather events are on the rise – from 100 a year in 1975 to more than 400 in 2005, according to the NASA Goddard Institute.
This rise is directly attributable to climate change. In the Himalayas, melting glaciers form lakes which can – and have – burst without warning causing catastrophic flooding. Increased sea temperatures contribute to both the severity and number of hurricanes such as Katrina – one recent study by the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado indicates that the average yearly number of hurricanes has nearly doubled in the last century.
Amid the packed calendar of negotiations leading up to Copenhagen, the Geneva meeting this week puts the human face of climate change at the top of its agenda. This UN forum of scientists, governments, aid agencies, NGOs and others is trying to find ways of coping with – and, more importantly, mitigating against – natural disasters. It is charged with implementing the 2005 Hyogo Framework aimed at protecting the world’s most vulnerable countries and communities from the worst impacts of disaster. Past strategies tended to focus on reducing the risks with better early warning systems and “disaster-proof” infrastructure such as building higher sea defences. Humanitarian aid in the wake of natural disasters – food, healthcare, shelter and rebuilding – runs at more than US$7 billion a year. Now, the focus is on prevention – by restoring and protecting ecosystems which shield us from the worst effects of natural disasters, and by ensuring global warming remains below the critical 2°C level.
A fair, fast and effective deal in Copenhagen has the potential to save countless millions of lives in some the earth’s poorest countries. If we do not achieve big reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, natural disasters – with all their attendant human misery – will increase. If we do not release significant funds for adaptation, our ability to cope will be reduced and the costs higher. If we do not invest in new, green technologies – and make them available to all – we will not make the transition to a sustainable world in time.
Natural disasters are, by their very nature, unpredictable. The experts meeting in Geneva this week know how hard it is to know when, where and how often disasters will strike. But one thing is certain – if the climate talks in Copenhagen to do not produce an ambitious and robust global deal, disasters will become more frequent, more intense and more costly.
