Business as usual on emissions may mean starvation and cub loss for polar bears

WWF

Climate change is threatening critical Arctic sea ice ecosystems, according to a new report, putting polar bears at risk for significant population declines by the end of the century.
 
Climate change and habitat loss were identified as two of the primary drivers of global species declines in WWF’s recent Living Planet Report, which tracked a disturbing 52 per cent drop in global wildlife populations between 1970 and 2012. Climate change remains the primary threat to polar bears, causing the melting of sea ice that is their critical habitat and reducing their access to prey.
 
A quarter of the world’s polar bears inhabit the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, where sea ice is currently present throughout the year. But according to the new report, ‘Projected Polar Bear Sea Ice Habitat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago’, published today in the scientific journal PLOS ONE, led by WWF and the University of Alberta, even these bears are likely to face up to five months of open water in the coming decades.
 
This study found that, by 2070, over 80 per cent of the Archipelago’s ice could break up in July, forcing pregnant females to retreat to land early, without enough fat reserves to successfully support pregnancy and nursing.  This is in stark contrast to the current situation, where some sea-ice persists in all these regions for most of the year.   Although thin ice is better habitat for seals, the bears’ main prey, it may simply not persist long enough to allow the polar bears sufficient spring hunting opportunities.
 
“This is a tragic scenario that doesn’t have to happen,” says David Miller, President and CEO, WWF-Canada.  “With Canada’s support for the recent G20 declaration calling for ‘strong and effective action to address climate change’, we hope to see a new commitment to taking action to reduce greenhouse gases today.  We have the opportunity to avoid the worst effects of climate change if we start the shift to a sustainable economy now – and as home to some two-thirds of the world’s polar bears, Canada has a special responsibility to take meaningful action today.”
 
As unprecedented rapid climate change places huge pressures on polar bear populations, bears also face growing threats from Arctic development, including shipping and offshore oil and gas development.  All these pressures will test the bears’ ability to adapt. Scientists foresee limits to how much and how quickly polar bears can adapt, after evolving to live on sea ice over hundreds of thousands of years. 
 
“As climate change leads to increasingly challenging conditions for polar bears and the entire Arctic marine food web, first and foremost we need immediate action to curb greenhouse gases. We also need to limit other pressures to give them the best chance at survival,” says Paul Crowley, Director, Arctic Program, WWF-Canada. “We must use these research findings – along with additional scientific and local and traditional knowledge studies – to shape decisions about the future development of this region.”
 
Under this study’s scenario, some parts of the Archipelago are predicted to retain summer sea ice longer, with shorter ice-free periods. A fringe of ice around northern Canada and Greenland, the high Arctic Archipelago, is a potential refuge for ice-adapted life. This region requires special measures and management, to maintain its viability as habitat – as do areas like the Northwest Passage, which provide important polar bear and ice whale habitat and are of great interest to industry.  Plans like the proposed Lancaster Sound National Marine Conservation Area, are critical for managing increasing industrial development in sensitive ecosystems, while supporting a healthy future for Canada’s polar bears and the communities whose livelihoods depend on them.
 
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